Did I predict it?

On July 24th, 2024, eleven days after the (first) Trump assassination attempt, I posted the following predictions:

3. Biden will be removed from office via the 25th amendment, and Harris will become the 47th President.

On this one, I was clearly wrong. I thought that the Democrats would do the right thing and remove an obviously senile disaster of a president from power, even if for the wrong reasons (such as Kamala’s lust for power). Clearly, I underestimated the political strength of the unelected cabal behind Biden’s handlers, as well as the craven disregard of the Democrats for their own country. The greatest political scandal of my lifetime is that Biden was not removed from office when it became obvious that he lacked the mental competence to fulfill his presidential duties—and I lived through the Clinton years.

6. Before Trump becomes president, NATO will become entangled in a direct war with Russia.

On this one, I was also wrong. About a month ago, it seemed that we were heading toward this outcome, but then Russia debuted the oreshnik hypersonic missile, and the neocons backed down. Turns out that when your opponent can strike any capital in Europe within minutes with a missile that cannot be shot down, that changes the calculus of war. There has probably also been some backroom dealing with the incoming Trump administration that we won’t hear about until long after the Russo-Ukraine war has been resolved. It wouldn’t surprise me to learn that Trump is using the Greenland issue to get leverage over Putin and satisfy the NATO hawks.

7. The war with Russia will not go nuclear, if only because Russia no longer has a functioning nuclear arsenal.

I was right about the war not going nuclear, though of course we have no way of knowing whether Russia’s nuclear arsenal is or is not functional—at least, no way of knowing short of fighting a nuclear war. So I’m going to give myself a point on this one, since despite the fact that the world has never been closer to nuclear armageddon, the US nuclear football has now passed hands to a man who isn’t utterly senile and suffering from late stage dimentia. I never thought I would say this, but I feel much safer knowing that Trump has the nuclear codes.

And that brings my score in the prediction game to four out of seven. Not the best, but still greater than 50%.