If the world ends, how will it happen? What will it look like? What is the absolute worst-case scenario, and how can we expect it to play out?
Ever since the 50s, the spectre of nuclear war has hung over our civilization like the sword of Damocles, double-edged, flaming, and bathed in heaven like the wrath of the Almighty. The fear of nuclear war probably did more to shape the Boomer generation than any other geopolitical threat, and now, as the Boomers age out and leave this world to their children, there’s a very real chance they’ll go out with the biggest bang the world has ever seen.
So what might that look like? What can we expect to see? For the last seven decades, nuclear deterrence has held, but what happens if it fails? Where do we end up after the smoke clears, and what does the world look like?
In Nuclear War, Annie Jacobsen posits a “bolt out of the blue” scenario, where an ICBM is launched at the US without any prior warning, other than our early detection systems. In this scenario, North Korea launches the nuke, but a bolt out of the blue could come from any number of nuclear powers, and immediately leads to a cascading series of events that results in a global nuclear holocaust. Jacobsen pulls no punches, and gives us a minute-by-minute, second-by-second account of how that cascade happens.
Meticulously researched and containing some shocking recently declassified information, this book is a fascinating read. I finished the audiobook the same day I started listening. Literally could not put it down. It’s terrifying, but also fascinating. For example, did you know that North Korea has put a satellite in orbit that likely contains a nuclear weapon (though of course they deny it), and if detonated over the US it will generate a high altitude EMP that would likely cause the same scenario in Forstchen’s One Second After? This is not a theoretical threat—the satellite is already in orbit. Also, did you know that if a nuclear weapon ever strikes a nuclear power plant, the resulting fallout from the combined explosion and meltdown will likely render all of the land within several hundred miles utterly uninhabitable for thousands of years? In other words, if you pick the right targets, you don’t even need a cobalt bomb to salt the earth.
But will a limited/tactical nuclear strike necessarily lead to a global nuclear holocaust that will wipe our civilization from the face of the planet? Annie Jacobsen certainly thinks so—and she makes a solid case that she will. As she puts it, the first rule of nuclear war is that there are no rules. She also points out how miscommunications and faults in our adversaries’ early detection systems could lead them to misconstrue the nature or intended target of our counterattack. And once things really get going, the process has been so systemetized that there’s very little that even the President of the United States can do to stop it from running its course. One of the things that really struck me in the book was just how powerless the president actually was, and how futile and pathetic his role turned out to be.
In the end, how does it turn out for humanity? Not very well. The resulting nuclear winter reduces the strength of the sun by 70% for about a decade, wiping out the world’s agriculture industry and rendering most temperate climates uninhabitable. I suppose if you happen to be in Samoa or Ethiopa when the nukes begin flying, you might survive, but most of the world’s seven billion people do not. And if that sounds outrageous, Jacobsen ends the book by bringing up Gobekli Tepi, an archeological site in Turkey that may have been built by the survivors of a similar world-ending cataclysm ten thousand years ago, as a sort of prehistoric time capsule from a civilization as advanced as our own (for more on that theory, read Magicians of the Gods by Graham Hancock). So just when you’re ready to say “that couldn’t ever happen,” Jacobsen points out that it not only could, but that we might indeed be the descendants of the survivors of a similar catastrophe.
It’s a fascinating book, though I’m not quite ready to buy all of Jacobsen’s conclusions. I’ve heard some counterpoints from skeptics about the current dilapidated state of Russia’s and China’s nuclear arsenals, and of the strength of our own defensive options, with Jacobsen dismisses out of hand. Then again, I wouldn’t want to bet on Jacobsen’s skeptics being right—though I suppose that I already have, by the fact that I have no plans to move my family over to Samoa or Ethiopia. But what can we really do? Food storage, solar panels, gold and silver, backyard chickens and a victory garden—if the nuclear apocalypse becomes a reality, all those preps will be about as effective as a band-aid on a sucking chest wound. Good luck.
Needless to say, this book is pretty dark, and not the sort of thing you should probably read if you’re already addicted to doom porn and struggling with anxiety over the current state of the world. For me, my personal religious convictions keep me from having panic attacks about the threat of nuclear war, but without those convictions, I’d probably be a hot mess after reading this book. However, it is an incredibly fascinating topic—and a timely one, too, given the current state of the world. If you can handle reading it, you almost certainly should.
Nuclear War by Annie Jacobsen
Every generation, a journalist has looked deep into the heart of the nuclear military establishment: the technologies, the safeguards, the plans, and the risks. These investigations are vital to how we understand the world we really live in—where one nuclear missile will beget one in return, and where the choreography of the world’s end requires massive decisions made on seconds’ notice with information that is only as good as the intelligence we have.
Pulitzer Prize finalist Annie Jacobsen’s Nuclear War: A Scenario explores this ticking-clock scenario, based on dozens of exclusive new interviews with military and civilian experts who have built the weapons, have been privy to the response plans, and have been responsible for those decisions should they have needed to be made. Nuclear War: A Scenario examines the handful of minutes after a nuclear missile launch. It is essential reading, and unlike any other book in its depth and urgency.
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